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Half the airlines in the ranking score zero for their insufficient uptake of sustainable aviation fuels. But a large part of the blame lies with oil companies, who are not investing in the transition to green kerosene. The UK needs to prioritise the uptake of e-fuels for planes in its SAF revenue certainty mechanism, green group Transport & Environment (T&E) says.
87% of airlines are failing in the transition to sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), a new ranking by T&E shows. Only 10 out of 77 airlines are making noteworthy efforts to switch to truly sustainable alternatives to fossil kerosene[1]. The remaining 67 are either buying too little SAF, the wrong kind of SAF, or are not considering SAFs at all in their decarbonisation plans. The top three airlines in the ranking are Air France-KLM, United Airlines and Norwegian, receiving high points for committing to e-kerosene or advanced and waste biofuels. Not only are airlines doing too little when it comes to SAF, but many of them are not doing anything - raising serious questions about their ability to address their climate impact, T&E warns.
IAG Group - which owns British Airways - comes fourth in the ranking. The airline group has pledged to use 10% SAF by 2030 - although they do not have a specific target for e-kerosene. But IAG has just shown some positive signals to the e-fuels industry by signing a purchase agreement last week with e-SAF provider Infinium to help meet the government’s 2030 targets for e-fuels, on top of its agreement with the e-SAF producer Twelwe at the beginning of 2024. Virgin Atlantic and Ryanair both rank in the D category (with 5 and 8 points respectively).
Currently, most of the airlines ranked are using the wrong type of SAF. E-kerosene makes up less than 10% of airlines’ SAF agreements, while unsustainable crop-based biofuels made from corn grains and soy oil account for more than 30%. The latter are not allowed in the UK SAF mandate. E-kerosene - a fuel made from renewable electricity - is the most sustainable and scalable type of SAF. Airlines need to do more to push fuel producers to prioritise the right types of feedstocks, T&E says.
Francesco Catte, SAF manager at T&E, explains: "Too few airlines are committing to truly sustainable fuels. The majority are either buying the wrong types of fuels or, worse still, no SAF at all. Airlines have to put their fist on the table to change this. They need to send the right signal to fuel suppliers that what is being sold to them will not make their flights green. Otherwise, they can wave goodbye to their net-zero goals."
Traditional oil producers are not investing enough in the transition to green fuels. The study analyses their projects and finds that Eni, TotalEnergies, Shell, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Sinopec and Saudi Aramco could produce only around 3 Mt of SAF per year by 2030 - less than 3% of their current jet fuel output. For example, the study estimates that in 2023, British oil giant BP produced less than 0.1 Mt of SAF, compared to its 9.5 Mt of kerosene output.
Worse still, virtually none of oil majors’ investments into SAFs are e-kerosene. Shell recently withdrew from an e-kerosene project, reflecting the industry’s reluctance to shift to clean fuels and to prioritise fossil fuel investments. The small amounts of SAFs that oil majors are planning to produce are either based on unscalable waste oils and fats or on unsustainable virgin vegetable oils. The e-kerosene market is currently led by smaller refiners and start-ups, which don’t have the financial power to produce enough to cater for the mass market in the long run.
“Oil companies are the missing piece of the puzzle in the green fuels ecosystem. They have gone unnoticed so far but their reluctance to invest into SAFs is hijacking the transition of the sector as a whole. Policy makers must get tougher and ensure oil majors are investing in SAFs, whilst also developing an industrial strategy for e-kerosene, to support this nascent industry with adequate funding and regulatory measures. The UK government should come forward with a revenue certainty mechanism as soon as possible to address these issues and foster e-kerosene production.” Francesco Catte explains.
SAF uptake across the world is very low. In 2023, the airlines in the ranking consumed more than 1.6 billion barrels of fossil kerosene, compared to only 2.6 million barrels of SAF (less than 0.15% of total jet fuel consumption). The analysis finds that, for the time being, they have purchased enough SAF to meet only 1.2% of their fuels needs by 2030. But uptake varies significantly across regions of the world. The North American airlines in the ranking will use 2.7% SAF in 2030, while their European counterparts will reach 1.3% SAF. But this share is likely to grow because of laws in the UK mandating the increasing use of SAF after 2030.
To ensure the take-off of SAFs in the UK, T&E recommends that the UK includes e-fuels as a priority investment in its SAF revenue certainty mechanism that should be published as soon as possible. In parallel, oil companies should engage in the e-kerosene market by developing projects themselves or by investing in e-fuels plants for aviation. If the industry relies solely on small players, e-kerosene will not scale up to meet the demands of the sector.
Note to editors:
Not all SAFs are equally sustainable. E-kerosene - a fuel made from renewable electricity - is the most sustainable and scalable type of SAF. In contrast, SAF derived from biomass (biofuels) vary greatly in sustainability and scalability. SAFs made from food or feed crops (e.g. corn) are not sustainable at all. In the ranking, airlines were awarded points for SAF and e-kerosene targets, for purchasing the most sustainable types of green fuels and for committing to e-kerosene via offtake agreements, letters of intent and memorandums of understanding.
[1] A mix between some of the world’s biggest airlines (in terms of passenger numbers and fuel consumption) and smaller airlines that have SAF offtake agreements were selected for the ranking. These 77 airlines are responsible for around 75% of global airline jet fuel consumption.
