Ships

Under a business-as-usual scenario, and if other sectors of the economy reduce emissions to keep the global temperature increase below 2 degrees, shipping could represent some 10% of global GHG emissions by 2050. Ships use some of the world’s dirtiest fuels on earth.

Green shipping fuels produced from renewable electricity such as hydrogen and e-ammonia represent the most promising way to decarbonise a sector that has long been reluctant to change. That’s because unlike many alternative fuels, e-fuels are truly sustainable and their production can be deployed to meet shipping’s growing demand.

However the uptake of e-fuels won’t happen on its own. That’s mainly because of very high costs. If the EU proposals for maritime decarbonisation are equipped with the right incentives for e-fuels, e-fuels could account for up to 7% of the EU shipping fuel mix already by 2030. This would give the sector the kickstart needed to deploy renewable fuels and ultimately achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Despite these plans and many successive rounds of negotiations, the International Maritime Organization has so far failed to adopt reduction measures to set the maritime sector on a pathway compatible with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.

It remains to be seen whether the European governments and the EU will take responsibility for the shipping industry’s climate impact in Europe. The European Commission has extended its carbon market to the sector so that, as of 2024, shipping emitters have to pay for their pollution. It has also introduced a green fuels mandate of 2% by 2034, but while this is a positive step, it is still not enough to put shipping on course for zero by 2050.