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The grillings are over. Ursula von der Leyen and her team have been confirmed.
The contrast between Brussels and Washington could not be starker these days. As the US embarks on a far-right political experiment, Ursula von der Leyen was appointed to lead a pro-Green Deal, pro Ukraine Commission. The EU is a beacon of stability and sanity in the West.
Von der Leyen is already one of Europe’s most consequential leaders. Apart from the Green Deal and Ukraine, breaking the taboo on joint EU borrowing is one of her greatest achievements.
Unfortunately past glory counts for little these days. A centrist Ursula may be, but success in her second term will require much more taboo smashing.
The key words in VDL’s acceptance speech were freedom, democracy, sovereignty and competitiveness. Whilst the Green Deal was not central to her pitch she made it very clear her Commission “will stay the course on the goals of the European Green Deal.” Chief among her climate plans is legislating for a new emissions target of -90% by 2040.
The new Commission’s top priority will be competitiveness and the clean industrial deal. Its agenda will be based on the Draghi report and three priorities specifically: “The first is closing the innovation gap with the US and China. The second is a joint plan for decarbonisation and competitiveness. And the third is increasing security and reducing dependencies.”
It was interesting to hear VdL list critical raw materials as a key dependency. Previously she dubbed lithium the new oil. It is right to be worried about dependence on single suppliers of raw materials. However, the reality is that the cost of oil and gas (€400bn a year, almost all imported) is far greater, and is directly to blame for the high energy prices that the EU needs to address.
Northvolt’s collapse – our thoughts on this here – confirms the EU does not have all the skills and companies it needs right now, but it is a vital market for Asian or American producers looking to expand. If the EU is ready to use its market power (eg. trade, local content), it would immediately see greater investments to localise clean tech supply chains in Europe.
That’s just one piece of the puzzle though. We have watched the US go from electrification laggards to eating Europe’s lunch in just two years. Even if Trump may scrap parts of the IRA, the law holds profound lessons in terms of simplicity, bankability and scale.
Ursula’s car test
The first big test for the Commission’s new approach will be cars. Having carefully steered clear of the car wars in her last term, von der Leyen has announced she will personally “convene a Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the Car Industry in Europe”.
Her stated goal? “To make sure that the future of cars will continue to be made in Europe.”
The last such dialogue chaired by VdL focused on agriculture and brought farmers, civil society and academics around the table. The auto dialogue must also include environmental voices, as well as those of progressive automakers not part of the EU auto lobby. It should be given the time to do its work properly, ahead of the 2026 cars review, which is when we will have some idea of whether the car industry’ scare stories about the 2025 CO2 have materialised.
The dialogue must focus on how to reach the EU’s goals. Key topics include ways to strengthen EV demand (incentives, corporate fleets), how to support ‘made in Europe’, grids and infrastructure, electricity prices, industrial transformation and corporate car electrification. Our detailed proposals are here.
It should be equally clear what the dialogue is not for. A continued debate about delaying or removing fines for non-compliance, as the European car lobby (ACEA) wants, creates massive uncertainty and will sabotage the transition carmakers claim they desire. Fortunately von der Leyen’s newly appointed team – Tzitzikostas, Hoekstra, Ribera – were all clear: you don’t change the rules in the middle of the game.
Europe is stronger than it thinks. A Trump-led US will be disruptive and chaotic. But it could give Europe a chance to catch up in the cleantech race. Biden’s IRA turned the US into a climate industrial leader. A genuinely ambitious Clean Industrial Deal can do the same.
