The IMO’s green strategy could release an additional 270 million tonnes of GHG emissions in 2030 compared to today, making it worse than doing nothing.
The vast majority of biofuels will come from palm and soy (60%), which are heavily linked to deforestation.
Close to 300 millions bottles of vegetable oil could be diverted to powering ships every day in 2030, putting pressure on grocery prices.
Only 2.5% and 3% of international shipping could run on animal fats and UCO in 2030 as supplies of waste biofuels are limited.
Nearly a third of global shipping could run on biofuels in 2030, new T&E analysis shows, up from less than 1% today. Under the current draft of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) green fuels law, this could actually exacerbate climate change and put pressure on global food supplies.
The study by Cerulogy on behalf of T&E shows that palm and soy oil would likely make up nearly two-thirds of the biodiesel used to power the shipping industry in 2030 as they represent the cheapest fuels to comply. This poses a serious climate problem, warns T&E, as palm and soy are responsible for two to three times more carbon emissions than even the dirtiest shipping fuels today, once deforestation and land clearance are taken into account.
The fuel-intensive shipping industry would need vast amounts of farmland. 34 million hectares in 2030 - the total area of Germany - will be needed to produce enough crops to meet the increased biofuels demand from the shipping industry.
This could have serious impacts on food supplies. Land that could be used for farming would need to be converted to growing biofuel crops, while burning vegetable oil in ships will deprive supermarkets of a staple food item. 300 mn bottles of vegetable oil could be diverted to powering ships every day in 2030, according to T&E’s analysis.
Constance Dijkstra, shipping manager at T&E, said: “Fueling cargo ships with deforestation is a terrible idea. Burning crops for fuel is bad for the planet and bad for global food security. The IMO should consider the climate impact of bad biofuels to avoid doing more harm than good.”
Shipping companies like MSC and CMA-CGM have invested in so-called waste biofuels like used cooking oil (UCO) and animal fats. But waste biofuels will likely be able to cover just a small proportion of shipping’s projected biofuels demand as their availability is limited. For example, a cargo ship travelling between China and Brazil would alone require the yearly waste oil from more 2000 McDonald’s restaurants, while to run it on animal fats you would need over 1 million pigs.
Shipping companies including the German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd and a number of NGOs today called on the IMO to exclude unsustainable biofuels from its list of green alternatives to traditional fossil fuels.
T&E calls on the IMO to agree on a clear definition of what constitutes a ‘zero’ and ‘near zero’ emission fuel, to exclude deforestation-linked biofuels, cap food-based biofuels and to incentivise green e-fuels made from green hydrogen.
