A new study for the Transport Alliance for Clean Air assesses what interventions are required to meet EU air quality standards in 2030.
The Transport Alliance for Clean Air (TACA) is a group of companies and associations from the transport and mobility space that share a common vision for clean air in the EU. Its members are Acciona, CONEBI, Cycling Industry Europe, Decathlon, Micromobility for Europe, Kunak, Ingka IKEA, Inter IKEA, MaaS Alliance, OPUS RSE, Tallano, Transdev, and Uber. T&E helps to coordinate the alliance's policy work.
The alliance says that the private sector should be at the forefront of action to tackle toxic air pollution, by helping authorities to strengthen controls over transport emissions and providing low- and zero-emission technologies, goods, and services.
Although improving, air pollution remains the biggest environmental threat to human health: a silent killer that causes more than 300,000 premature deaths a year in addition to causing various illnesses such as lung cancer, strokes, asthma, and is suspected to damage every organ in the human body. Concentrations of air pollution in Europe are still way above what is considered healthy by the World Health Organization (WHO). 89% of European city dwellers are still breathing dangerous levels of NO2 , and 96% of them are breathing dangerous levels of PM2.5.
With the EU’s new Ambient Air Quality Directive (AAQD) entering into force, national governments will need to establish “air quality roadmaps” in order to set a pathway to comply with the new European air quality standards for pollutants, including Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). In anticipation of the preparation of these air quality roadmaps, the Transport Alliance for Clean Air commissioned a study to Air Quality Consultants (AQC) to assess what transport interventions would be required in cities in order for them to reach the new European air quality standards for NO2 and PM2.5 in 2030 (respectively 20µg/m³ and 10µg/m³), and the WHO recommended concentrations for these same pollutants in 2040 (respectively 10µg/m³ and 5µg/m³).
Results of the modelling show that both the EU limit values and WHO guidelines for NO2 can be met respectively in 2030 and 2040 under each of the three following scenarios:
Upgrading the entire internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle fleet (covering cars, vans and trucks) to the latest relevant Euro standards (Euro 6d petrol cars and vans, Euro 6d temp diesel cars and vans and Euro VI trucks);
Electrifying parts of the ICE fleet (ranging from 15% to 57% depending on the vehicle type and the compliance year), prioritising older and more polluting combustion vehicles (diesel cars, combustion vans and trucks);
Favouring alternative mobility modes such as active mobility, public transport, and electric light mobility (e-scooters, e-bikes and electric cargo bikes) individual motorised trips.
However, in order to reach the EU PM2.5 limit values in 2030 and WHO guidelines in 2040, more ambitious transport measures are required that combine the three pathways listed above, including a significant reduction of traffic levels (ranging from 10% to 50%, depending on the city).
These results can be transposed into the following policy recommendations:
Low-emission zones (LEZs) should be designed in order to: Phase out diesel vehicles, and only allow the circulation of Euro 5 petrol cars, Euro 6d vans and Euro VI trucks from 2030; only allow the circulation of electric vehicles (cars, vans and buses), as well as Euro VI trucks by 2040.
Scrappage schemes need to be established where not already in place, as an incentive to accelerate the transition from polluting cars (particularly diesel) to electric.
Limited traffic zones need to be rolled out in large cities all over Europe in order to reduce car and traffic levels by 25 to 50% for cars and by 5 to 25% for vans depending on the cities and the years, targeting transit trips in priority.
Public transport and shared and active mobility need to replace 25 to 50% of car trips, 5 to 25% of van trips by 2030 and 2040 respectively. Incentives are therefore needed for the uptake of these mobility modes such as mobility credits where scrapping an old polluting car will result in temporary free public transport passes; complementarily, road space needs to be reallocated in favour of infrastructure dedicated to transport modes other than cars, such as active mobility and public transport.
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