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Nearly half (49%) of all new EU city buses were zero-emission (ZE) in 2024, making city buses one of the early success stories of the European Green Deal. Sales exceeded T&E’s projection made last year, despite it assuming exponential growth. This is due to the faster-than-expected uptake in fuel cell buses, making up 3% of new EU city buses in 2024. Battery-electric however remains by far the dominant powertrain, with a 46% share.
This success is both due to new European regulation last year sending a clear market signal that the days of diesel buses are numbered, but also thanks to city-level policies such as zero-emission zones and fleet targets. As a result, the city bus market is shifting much faster to zero-emission than what is required under the EU’s Clean Vehicle Directive and the CO2 standards for trucks and buses. At this growth rate, city buses are on track to reach fully ZE sales by 2027. For city residents, that means quieter streets and cleaner air.
This rapid boom at the European level masks some regional differences. While most countries are powering ahead of current and upcoming targets, a handful of countries trail behind, showing how important country-level targets remain. New public procurement criteria can promote the uptake of made-in Europe ZE city buses. Tenders should focus on battery-electric and fuel cell buses, away from gas and hybrid technologies; and on vehicles produced in Europe, to ensure that public money is spent supporting European jobs and manufacturing.
Who leads?
The European market is led by the Netherlands, Finland and Iceland, with 100% battery-electric city bus sales in 2024. Spain leads among major markets (i.e. markets with over 1,000 new city bus sales annually), reaching a 57% ZE share and overtaking the United Kingdom which ranks a very close second at 56%. Italy ranks third with a 44% ZE share, but under the EU27 average of 49%. France and Germany come 4th and 5th place with one-third of ZE city buses.
Notables changes in 2024
The story of Estonia offers a glimpse of what is possible. Last year, Estonia came in last in our ranking, having registered no ZE city buses in 2023 (or in previous years). However, we hoped the country would soon start to catch up, as Tallinn had received the first electric buses in the country in April 2024. That hope materialised: 84% of new Estonian city buses were battery-electric in 2024.
Fuel cell hydrogen city buses are starting to make some headway, doubling their 2023 market share to close to 3% in 2024. Interestingly, their uptake in 2024 was mainly confined to major markets whereas fuel cell buses had made some strides in smaller markets in past years. In the Netherlands, fuel cell hydrogen had accounted for 20% of new city buses in 2021, but their share dwindled to 13% in 2022, 5% in 2023, and now 0% in 2024.
Contrary to ZE powertrains, sales shares of other alternative powertrains have remained stable at relatively low points. Hybrid city buses, usually around a fifth of new EU sales, made up only 16% of new sales in 2024. Similarly, the share of gas city buses stagnated at its historically low level of 14%.
Overall ranking since 2021
The city bus market is relatively small, with only a few hundreds or thousands of vehicles sold each year in a given European country. Ranking countries based on cumulative shares since 2021 helps compare how they perform overall, though it hides how countries evolve over time.
The Netherlands clearly lead the transition: less than 1% of new city buses have been diesel since 2021. Close behind are Nordic countries as well as a few East and South European countries. Since 2021, roughly two-thirds of new city buses have been battery-electric in Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece.
Six countries have been markedly slower to shift to ZE city buses than the rest of Europe: Austria, Czechia, Hungary, Estonia, Slovakia, and Croatia. All except Hungary were already identified as lagging behind in a 2022 blog.
However, most show (sometimes timid) signs of improvement in recent years. If, as we predict, 2025 marks the turning point where more than half of new city buses are zero-emission, we should see the transition accelerate accordingly in trailing countries.
