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I’ve worked on aviation for years now and there has never been a more exciting - but also terrifying - time to be in this space.
It’s exciting because solutions to make aviation greener actually exist. Whether it's replacing fossil kerosene by alternatives like e-fuels or halving aviation’s contrail warming impact by tweaking the flight paths of 3% of flights - we are on the cusp of a green revolution in aviation. But will it ever happen?
There is always a lot of risk involved in such a make or break moment for any industry. But with great risk, comes great reward.
Inventors of LED lights braved the risk of facing a backlash from fluorescent lighting industries in the 2000s - but now we can’t imagine our houses without LEDs. Did the lighting industry not risk it all when they made a 360° turn towards a radically new type of technology? Yes. Did policy makers support the shift with strong policy signals? Yes again. But the promise of a more efficient technology trumped in the end.
The question is whether the aviation sector and policy makers are ready for a revolution that will bring momentous climate and efficiency benefits to this fossil-dependent sector.
Put your money where your mouth is
It is usually the case that the most sustainable solutions cost a fair bit of money. This is the case for e-kerosene. For now, take up is very low: e-kerosene makes up less than 10% of airlines’ future SAF agreements.
As one of the few scalable and truly sustainable alternatives to fossil kerosene, a paradigm shift for e-kerosene is needed. There are 56 projects in Europe. But none of them will see the light of day if they don’t receive a final investment decision. 2025 is the year to make e-kerosene happen.
To date, small start-ups are the only ones investing in this space. Fuel producers - the likes of BP, Shell and Total - must get their hands dirty and start pouring big money into e-fuels for planes. But we can’t rely solely on the good will of oil majors. EU lawmakers need to switch gears and pour more money into e-fuels. The upcoming Clean Industrial Deal presents a unique opportunity to give a much needed boost to e-fuels.
Money, strong will and policy will also be needed for the delivery of the first hydrogen plane. In 2019, Airbus came out with its great plans to build a hydrogen plane. Five years later, we have plans for new engines and well-crafted letters on hydrogen deals. But at the same time, we have headlines of hydrogen aircraft start-ups filing for bankruptcy and Airbus CEO warning of possible delays.
Two things need to happen if it’s to be a success: Airbus must pour the necessary millions into the project, and policy makers need to set up a regulatory framework.
Hail to the contrail
Contrails are warming our planet at alarming speed. These white lines in the sky have a net warming effect on the planet, at least as important as the one caused by aviation’s CO2 emissions.
But solutions exist. Better news still: the solution is as cheap as a coffee at the airport (€4 per flight ticket). As only a minority of flights (3%) generate 80% of contrail warming, these flights could be rerouted to avoid very cold atmospheric regions: it’s a low risk, high reward type of revolution if you ask me!
Now we need a plan of action to phase out warming contrails in the next 10 years. The EU just introduced a landmark deal where airlines will have to monitor their contrails. What comes next? Countries need to include contrails in their climate targets as a first step, invest in large-scale tries and mandate contrail-free skies by 2035. If policy makers take this seriously, the phase out of warming contrails could come much faster than the death of fluorescent lights.
What happens if contrail mitigation, e-kerosene and hydrogen planes fail? Consumers and policy makers will lose trust in the sector’s ability to get to zero. They could introduce harsher measures like higher taxes, airport caps and limits on traffic. Momentum is building on addressing overtourism and putting an end to sectors flying under the radar - does aviation want to be the next target? It’s in the industry’s interest to get it right now, before it’s too late.
We are weeks away from the start of the 25-year countdown to get the sector to net zero emissions. Frankly, they have no choice but to make - rather than break - green aviation.
