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With a booming number of electric vans in Europe, all European capitals could introduce zero-emission freight zones by 2030 and have enough made-in-Europe e-vans to meet the requirements, new analysis shows. By 2026, there will be more e-van models available than diesel and petrol ones, and battery-electric vans will be cheaper to buy than their diesel counterparts by 2027.
Between 2025 and 2030, 3.9 million e-vans are projected to be sold in the EU and UK[1],[2]. This would be more than enough to allow all 27 EU capitals, as well as London, to implement zero-emission zones for freight, new analysis by Transport & Environment and the Clean Cities Campaign shows. The impacted fleets — i.e. fleets with over 100 vans — would absorb only 32% of the total domestic supply. If zero-emission zones were extended to cover fleets above 50 or even 20 vans, there would still be enough e-vans available to supply all 28 cities[3]. This means that all European capitals could be free of large petrol and diesel van fleets by 2030[4].
Electric vans will be key to the decarbonisation of city centres. Zero-emission zones — areas in which only active mobility and emission-free vehicles are permitted — are gaining in popularity in Europe as a means to tackle air pollution. 35 such zones are already planned for the 2030s, with 19 coming into force in 2025. The majority of these zones are designed as zero-emission freight zones, meaning e-vans will increasingly take centre stage on our streets.
The new, more stringent EU ambient air quality directive (AAQD), which will take effect in 2030, will require cities to take additional action and consider such zones as a priority measure in case of expected air pollution limit exceedances. Like cars, vans are regulated by CO2 standards: but despite weak van CO2 standards, supply for e-vans is ramping up because of increasing demand from the private sector, air quality regulation and requirements of zero-emissions zones.
Barbara Stoll, Senior Director of T&E’s Clean Cities Campaign, explains: “This is a vital piece of information for fleet managers and city leaders across Europe. With more than enough vans to go round, and e-vans expected to be cheaper than their diesel alternatives by 2027, businesses should have everything they need to operate in zero-emission freight zones across Europe. This is brilliant news for the air we breathe and the climate we all rely on."
The e-van market is booming and there will soon be more electric van models available than diesel and petrol ones, the study shows. Starting 2026, buyers will have the choice between more e-van models than ICE models (48 vs 46 models).
Battery-electric vans will be cheaper to buy than their diesel counterparts by 2027, the study also shows, assuming that their battery costs decline in line with BloombergNEF’s latest projections. When looking at total cost of ownership (TCO), which includes operating costs such as fuel and maintenance, previous studies found that battery-electric vans were already cheaper than their diesel counterparts in the majority of European countries surveyed when financial incentives were taken into account.
The study finds that models available today are already suitable for most van drivers. There are already 23 e-van models available with a range above 250 km, including 3 models with more than 330 km of range, meaning most drivers have models at their disposal to carry out their daily drives without needing to charge. Indeed, company vans drive 175 km/day on average, though vans carrying goods drive more: 193 km/day on average for business-to-business (B2B) delivery, and 254 km/day on average for business-to-consumer (B2C) delivery.
“The EU has plans to electrify company fleets in the near future as part of the Greening Corporate Fleets initiative. E-vans should be at the heart of this law. This study shows that there are no excuses for lawmakers to not opt for ambitious targets for companies to go fully electric. The e-van market is about to boom, they are getting cheaper and their battery ranges are sufficient for the journeys of most drivers.” Sofie Defour, trucks director at T&E concludes.
[1] These are made-in-Europe and excludes foreign imports
[2] Numbers based on GlobalData’s forecast
[3] E-vans here refers to battery electric vans (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vans (FCEVs)
[4] In this analysis, it is assumed that such zones initially only apply to large fleets. This means petrol and diesel vans owned by private persons and small fleets, about 60% of van stock in cities, would be unaffected.
