Airline ranking: only 10 airlines have serious plans to transition to green fuels

Half the airlines in the ranking score zero for their insufficient uptake of sustainable aviation fuels. But a large part of the blame lies with oil companies, who are not investing in the transition to green kerosene. The EU needs to prioritise the uptake of e-fuels for planes in its upcoming Clean Industrial Deal package, green group Transport & Environment (T&E) says.

87% of airlines are failing in the transition to sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), a new ranking by T&E shows. Only 10 out of 77 airlines are making noteworthy efforts to switch to truly sustainable alternatives to fossil kerosene^[1]. The remaining 67 are either buying too little SAF, the wrong kind of SAF, or are not considering SAFs at all in their decarbonisation plans. The top three airlines in the ranking are Air France-KLM, United Airlines and Norwegian, receiving high points for committing to e-kerosene or advanced and waste biofuels. Not only are airlines doing too little when it comes to SAF, but many of them are not doing anything - raising serious questions about their ability to address their climate impact, T&E warns.

Not all SAFs are equally sustainable. E-kerosene - a fuel made from renewable electricity - is the most sustainable and scalable type of SAF. In contrast, SAF derived from biomass (biofuels) vary greatly in sustainability and scalability. SAFs made from food or feed crops (e.g. corn) are not sustainable at all. In the ranking, airlines were awarded points for SAF and e-kerosene targets and for committing to e-kerosene via offtake agreements, letters of intent and memorandums of understanding.

Currently, most of the airlines ranked are using the wrong type of SAF. E-kerosene makes up less than 10% of airlines’ SAF agreements, while unsustainable crop-based biofuels made from corn grains and soy oil account for more than 30%. Airlines need to do more to push fuel producers to prioritise the right types of feedstocks, T&E says.

Francesco Catte, SAF manager at T&E, explains: "Too few airlines are committing to truly sustainable fuels. The majority are either buying the wrong types of fuels or, worse still, no SAF at all. Airlines have to put their fist on the table to change this. They need to send the right signal to fuel suppliers that what is being sold to them will not make their flights green. Otherwise, they can wave goodbye to their net-zero goals."

Traditional oil producers are not investing enough in the transition to green fuels. The study analyses their projects and finds that Eni, TotalEnergies, Shell, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Sinopec and Saudi Aramco could produce only around 3 Mt of SAF per year by 2030 - less than 3% of their current jet fuel output.

Worse still, virtually none of their investments into SAFs are e-kerosene. Shell recently withdrew from an e-kerosene project, reflecting the industry’s reluctance to shift to clean fuels and to prioritise fossil fuel investments. The miniscule amounts of SAFs that Big Oil companies are producing are bio-based fuels which are unsustainable and unscalable. The e-kerosene market is currently led by smaller refiners and start-ups, which don’t have the financial power to produce enough to cater for the mass market in the long run.

“Oil companies are the missing piece of the puzzle in the green fuels ecosystem. They have gone unnoticed so far but their reluctance to invest into SAFs is hijacking the transition of the sector as a whole. Regulators must get tougher and ensure oil majors are investing in SAFs, whilst also developing a European industrial strategy for e-kerosene, to support this nascent industry with adequate funding and regulatory measures. The Clean Industrial Deal offers a unique opportunity to address these issues and foster e-kerosene production.” Francesco Catte explains.

SAF uptake across the world is very low. In 2023, the airlines in the ranking consumed more than 1.6 billion barrels of fossil kerosene, compared to only 2.6 million barrels of SAF (less than 0.15% of total jet fuel consumption). The analysis finds that they have purchased enough SAF to meet only 1.2% of their fuels needs by 2030. But uptake varies significantly across regions of the world. The North American airlines in the ranking will use 2.7% SAF in 2030, while their European counterparts will reach 1.3% SAF. But this share is likely to grow because of laws in the EU and the UK mandating the increasing use of SAF after 2030.

Given the small amounts of SAF being purchased so far, the emissions reduction via SAF will not compensate for the sector’s emissions growth. For the 77 airlines ranked in the study, the projected volumes of SAF will only lead to a 0.9% CO₂eq emissions reduction in 2030. But as airlines in Europe are purchasing SAFs of higher quality, they are expected to achieve higher emissions reductions than North American airlines.

To ensure the take-off of SAFs in Europe, T&E recommends that the EU includes e-fuels as a priority investment in its upcoming Clean Industrial Deal. Targeted measures and incentives are needed to support the industry, particularly the first movers in the e-kerosene space. In parallel, oil companies should engage in the e-kerosene market by developing projects themselves or by investing in e-fuels plants for aviation to foster its scale-up instead of continuing to perpetuate reliance on fossil fuels.

^[1] A mix between some of the world’s biggest airlines (in terms of passenger numbers and fuel consumption) and smaller airlines that have SAF offtake agreements were selected for the ranking. These 77 airlines are responsible for around 75% of global airline jet fuel consumption.